Caribbean
Poker Strategy
Mastering the game of Caribbean Stud Poker requires
us to follow two simple rules with one exception:
- Only bet a non-pair hand if your hand is qualified (A-K or better) and contains
a dealer up-card.*
- Always Bet if you have a pair or better.
* The only exception to rule #1 is if you have A-K-Q-J-X, which
you should Bet regardless of the dealer up-card. (Where X = Any Card)
The most difficult thing to do when we play is stick to a strategy
when we are going through a cold streak. A lot of people have a tendency
to Bet when they should fold
in order to make up for money that has been lost. However, knowing
the optimal strategy and what we should expect will
help prevent us from deviating when cold streaks occur.
Non-Pair Hands - Analysis
Keep in mind that A-K-Q-J-X is the worst hand you can have
that is worth placing a Bet wager. However, if the X card matches the
dealer up card it makes the hand a little stronger.
Let me show you an example to explain why A-K-Q-J-X marks the turning
point for hands that call for the Bet wager. Let's say we play 1,000
games using an A-K-Q-J-X hand in every single game and fold every
single hand. That would mean we lose 1,000 coins. However, if we
place the Bet wager on all 1,000 hands, we put at risk 3,000 coins
(1,000 coins on the Ante and 2,000 on the Bet portion). Here is how
it breaks down if we place the Bet wager on every single hand:
Return on Dealer Non-Qualified Hands |
1,824 |
Return on Dealer Qualified Hands |
204 |
Total Return |
2,028 |
So as you can see we lose 972 coins if we place the Bet wager on
every single hand versus 1,000 coins if we fold on every hand. Not
that much better! What we can expect with this hand is not to win
but to lose less than if we folded. It is similar to blackjack
where we split pairs of 8's to lose less - not to win the hand.
Pair or Better Analysis
Remember that all pair hands are worth placing the Bet wager on regardless
of what the dealer up card is.
To give you an example of why we should bet any pair we will analyze
the worst case, a pair of two's. We will play our pair of two's against
1,000 dealer hands just like in our example above. Here is our return
on a hand with a pair of two's:
| Return on hands that did NOT Qualify |
1,732 |
| Return on Qualified hands |
312 |
| Return on Dealer Matching Pairs |
18 |
Total Return |
2,062 |
We would lose 938 coins by placing the Bet on a pair of two's versus
losing 1,000 coins by folding. Again, not a great return but it is
better than folding.
Odds and House Edge
- House Advantage as % of Total Units Wagered: 2.7%
- House Advantage as % of Antes Wagered: 5.6%
- The dealer will Qualify 56% of the time.
- 80% of dealer Qualified hands will be a pair or better
- Over 90% of the total payback comes from One-Pair, Two-Pair and
Three-of-a-Kind hands.
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